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Exchange Rate Forecasts / Testing Models and Proposed Variables
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A 35 page proposed research study in exchange rate models. The writer proposes that the Frankel RID as tested by Bruhn be duplicated once again for the purpose of setting baseline for advanced studies in applying cultural variables as well as economic and political variables in forecasting models. The purpose behind the proposal is that RID be tested for baseline viability for VAR and multivariate exchange rate forecasting studies. The importance of establishing baseline is related to the inability of RID-based models to economic crises. For this reason, the wrier also posits and discusses why neither the RID base nor its offspring can forecast crises. What's missing are cultural variables, in this case, the Japanese cultural concept of 'amae,' the basis of Asian crisis - a belief shared by countries as diverse as Russia and Nigeria. Bibliography lists 40 sources.
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Pages:
35
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Filename:D0_Cnjpnbok.wps |
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Paper Title:
Exchange Rate Forecasts / Testing Models and Proposed Variables
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